I’ve linked a great article on hurricane development. Usually they are kicking in by the end of July.
“The season’s first hurricane usually has formed by August 10, but again, in the past 3 years, has formed as soon as the end of June or as late as mid-August.”
But don’t forget, we’ll already had a Tropical Storm “Arlene” form in the Gulf of Mexico – battering Mexico with 15 inches of rain.
“An area that “emerges”, if you will, in July is near the Windward Islands, as tropical waves originating in Africa may begin to develop, in earnest.
“The tropical waves coming off of western Africa every 2-4 days are a little better defined than in June, says TWC Hurricane Expert, Dr. Rick Knabb. “That’s one reason why we start to look farther east for development in July.”