“The famed storm prognosticators at Colorado State University have issued their first crystal-ball look at the upcoming hurricane season, and they’re again calling for an above-active one.”
“That forecast comes in the wake of their 2010 estimates, which correctly projected – although ultimately underestimated – a busy hurricane season.”
“Researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach are guessing that we’ll have 17 named storms next year, nine of which will strengthen into hurricanes.
The 50-year average is 9.6 named storms and six hurricanes.
The Colorado State scientists are also projecting a 73 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast. The annual average is 52 percent.”
Did you know that “the 2010 hurricane season there were a total of 19 named storms, tying 1887 and 1995 for third highest on record.”
“Of those 19 storms, 12 strengthened into hurricanes. That ties 1969 for second highest on record, according to the National Hurricane Center.”
So why didn’t we see more hurricanes in the Gulf Coast? Because we got lucky.
“First, the jet stream that roasted and dried out much of the eastern U.S. acted as a natural barrier to keep many storms out at sea.
Then because so many of the storms formed in the eastern Atlantic close to Africa, they began curving northward before they even reached the Caribbean.”
“Five of those became major hurricanes, reaching Category 3 or higher.”
Don’t expect that luck to hold this year. It’s a good time to prepare before the rush begins.